The weight of an arena/category/parameter is on a 1-5 scale.
The weight indicates the importance of each arena, category, or parameter, in comparison to the others.
The score of an arena/category/parameter is on a 0-10 scale.
0 indicates developments that pose maximum strain and 10 indicates a maximally sustaining impact for a two-state outcome.
| Arena | AW | AV | Category | CW | CV | Parameter | PW | PV | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political and Public Arena | 4.00 | 5.25 | Leadership | 5.00 | 4.77 | Israeli prime minister | 5 | 4 | How supportive is the Israeli prime minister of a two-state solution |
| PLO chairman | 5 | 6 | How supportive is the PLO chairman of a two-state solution | ||||||
| Hamas leadership | 3 | 4 | How supportive is the Hamas leadership of reconciliation that empowers the PLO chairman to negotiate a two-state solution | ||||||
| Body politic | 1.00 | 2.92 | Fatah-Hamas relations | 4 | 1 | How close the two main Palestinian factions are to reconciliation that will help resolve the Palestinian representation crisis | |||
| PLO cohesion | 3 | 3 | To what extent internal strife within various Palestinian factions harms Palestinian representation and the two-state cause | ||||||
| Israeli government | 4 | 4 | How supportive the makeup of the Israeli coalition is of a two-state solution | ||||||
| Israeli legislature | 1 | 6 | How supportive the makeup of the Israeli Knesset is of a two-state solution | ||||||
| Public | 3.00 | 5.46 | Palestinian public opinion | 5 | 5 | How supportive is the Palestinian public of a two-state solution | |||
| Israeli public opinion | 5 | 8 | How supportive is the Israeli public of a two-state solution | ||||||
| Interaction between Palestinian and Israeli civil societies | 2 | 6 | The level and intensity of interaction between Israeli and Palestinian civil societies | ||||||
| Israeli civil society | 3 | 7 | The intensity and effectiveness of pro-two-state Israeli civil society actors | ||||||
| Palestinian civil society | 3 | 4 | The intensity and effectiveness of pro-two-state Palestinian civil society actors | ||||||
| Palestinian education | 3 | 3 | To what extent the Palestinians education system promotes themes of moderation toward and reconciliation with Israel | ||||||
| Israeli education | 3 | 4 | To what extent the Israeli education system promotes themes of moderation toward and reconciliation with the Palestinians | ||||||
| International actors | 5.00 | 6.08 | United states | 4 | 3 | How supportive is the United States of a two-state solution | |||
| Arab world | 3 | 7 | How supportive is the Arab World of a two-state solution | ||||||
| Europe | 3 | 8 | How supportive is the European Union of a two-state solution | ||||||
| Other | 2 | 8 | How supportive is the rest of the international community of a two-state solution | ||||||
| Diplomatic and Legal Arena | 1.00 | 4.23 | Diplomacy | 5.00 | 3.22 | Israeli-Palestinian bilateral negotiations | 5 | 1 | The extent to which bilateral Israeli-Palestinian negotiations are intense, carried in good faith, and geared toward a two-state solution |
| Third party engagement | 4 | 6 | The extent to which third parties are willing and able to exert pressure on and offer incentives to the sides to move them toward a two-state solution | ||||||
| Oslo framework | 2.00 | 3.22 | PA-ruled area | 2 | 1 | The integrity of PA control over areas A and B | |||
| Paris agreement | 3 | 5 | The level of adherence to the the economic framework agreed upon in the 1994 Paris Agreement | ||||||
| Area C | 4 | 3 | The level of Palestinian access to (and relaxation of Israeli control over) Area C | ||||||
| Israeli law | 2.00 | 3.60 | Israeli law in the west bank | 3 | 4 | (REVERSED SCALE) The efforts toward annexation of the West Bank by means of major annexation bills that are advancing in the Knesset, as well as other systematic application of Israeli law over areas of Israeli settlements | |||
| Expropriation of private Palestinian lands or legalization of settlements | 2 | 3 | (REVERSED SCALE) Tracking the application of the Regulation Law, key legal opinions that seek to create alternative avenues for expropriating private lands, and how both are being effectuated on the ground | ||||||
| International law | 4.00 | 6.31 | International decisions/resolutions | 3 | 7 | To what extent does the collection of decisions and resolutions provide a constructive framework for a two-state solution | |||
| Lawfare: Legal institutions and proceedings | 3 | 3 | (REVERSED SCALE) The intensity of clashing in the realm of international institutions and proceedings | ||||||
| Recognition/memberships | 2 | 6 | To what extent the issue of recognition/memberships anchors the two-state solution in international institutions | ||||||
| Basic International norms | 5 | 8 | To what extent the collection of basic international norms provide a constructive framework for a two-state solution | ||||||
| Reality on the Ground | 2.00 | 4.45 | Settlement expansion | 5.00 | 4.47 | Population | 5 | 3 | (REVERSED SCALE) The number of settlers in the West Bank and East Jerusalem |
| Built-up areas | 4 | 4 | (REVERSED SCALE) The location of settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem | ||||||
| Agriculture | 3 | 6 | (REVERSED SCALE) The extent of Israeli agricultural infrastructure in the West Bank | ||||||
| Industry | 2 | 6 | (REVERSED SCALE) The extent of Israeli industrial infrastructure in the West Bank and East Jerusalem | ||||||
| Roads | 1 | 6 | (REVERSED SCALE) The extent of Israeli transportation infrastructure in the West Bank and East Jerusalem | ||||||
| Security | 4.00 | 5.31 | Palestinian attacks (West Bank) | 5 | 6 | (REVERSED SCALE) The number and impact of attacks on Israelis from the West Bank | |||
| IDF Military actions (West Bank) | 5 | 3 | (REVERSED SCALE) The number and impact of attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank | ||||||
| Security coordination | 3 | 8 | The level of security coordination between the sides | ||||||
| Palestinian Statebuilding | 2.00 | 3.20 | Economy | 3 | 3 | The level of economic viability of the Palestinians in the West Bank | |||
| Governance | 1 | 4 | The effectiveness of governance in the PA areas in the West Bank | ||||||
| Legal | 1 | 3 | The presence and effectiveness of the legal system in the PA areas | ||||||
| Jerusalem | 5.00 | 4.67 | Holy sites | 5 | 6 | The integrity of and access to holy sites based on the established religious Status Quo. | |||
| Settlements | 4 | 2 | (REVERSE SCALE) The expansion of Israeli settlements in East Jerusalem, in large Jewish settlement-neighborhoods and inside Palestinian residential areas | ||||||
| Palestinian civil life | 3 | 6 | The ability of Palestinians to develop civil and political infrastructure in East Jerusalem | ||||||
| Gaza | 4.00 | 3.91 | Humanitarian conditions | 5 | 3 | The humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip | |||
| Prospects for war | 4 | 6 | (REVERSE SCALE) The prospects for an Israeli-Palestinian skirmish in Gaza | ||||||
| Palestinian attacks (Gaza) | 3 | 5 | (REVERSED SCALE) The number and impact of attacks on Israelis from the Gaza Strip | ||||||
| IDF Military actions (Gaza) | 3 | 5 | (REVERSED SCALE) The number and impact of attacks on Palestinians in the Gaza Strip | ||||||
| Governance | 3 | 3 | The effectiveness of governance in the Gaza Strip | ||||||
| Economy | 4 | 2 | The level of economic viability of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip | ||||||
| Solvability of the Core Issues | 5.00 | 6.38 | Borders | 5.00 | 6.22 | Population | 4 | 4 | The willingness and ability of Israel to evacuate and absorb the settlers that would need to be evacuated in the context of a two-state solution |
| Land swaps | 5 | 8 | The geographic integrity of the prospective Palestinian state after realistic, equal land swaps | ||||||
| Security | 5.00 | 7.50 | Regional architecture | 5 | 8 | The ability of Israel, the Palestinians, and regional actors to agree on a regional security architecture that answers the security and sovereignty needs of all parties | |||
| Counterterrorism | 4 | 8 | The ability of Israel and the Palestinians to agree on counterterrorism measures that answer the security and sovereignty needs of both parties | ||||||
| Envelope | 3 | 6 | The ability of Israel and the Palestinians to agree on security arrangements and timelines introduced on the boundaries between Palestine and third countries | ||||||
| Jerusalem | 4.00 | 5.78 | Geopolitical | 4 | 3 | The ability to draw a continuous border through the city with minimal infringement on daily lives and reasonable integration of both capitals into their respective states | |||
| Holy Places/Sanctity | 5 | 8 | Guaranteeing the integrity of and access to holy sites based on the established religious Status Quo. | ||||||
| Refugees | 2.00 | 4.53 | Responsibility | 3 | 4 | The ability of Israel and the Palestinians to agree on language that addresses the responsibility for the creation of the refugee issue | |||
| Refugees rights | 5 | 5 | The ability of Israel and the Palestinians to agree on refugee rights and the extent to which they are addressed in the context of the agreement | ||||||
| Permanent place of residency | 5 | 5 | The ability of Israel and the Palestinians to agree on mechanisms that addresses the permanent residency needs of Palestinian refugees | ||||||
| Compensation | 2 | 3 | The ability of Israel and the Palestinians, with the assistance of the international community, to agree on compensation modalities for refugihood/suffering, for lost properties, and to host countries | ||||||
| Recognition / Narrative / Reconciliation | 2.00 | 7.00 | Historical narratives/mutual recognition/prisoners | 5 | 7 | The ability of Israel and the Palestinians to agree on language that recognizes both people’s right to self-determination, each in its own state |